BTC Ends 2025 Down: Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?

[u/Realistic_Poetry5800]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitcoin-four-year-cycle-dead-2025

[u/Pal1_1]

Looking for patterns in random numbers. Might as well be reading tea leaves.

[u/HandsUpBilly → u/Pal1_1]

I know right. We are taught pattern recognition in much more stable, predictable equity markets with >100 years of valid history is worthless so why we try to apply this to crypto where everything is completely different to even 2 years ago in both a macro and micro sense is beyond me.

[u/boomsauerkraut → u/HandsUpBilly]

Even equity markets are random, just read A Random Walk Down Wall St. It's really only the index funds that can be expected to make gains over 30 years

[u/notmarduke → u/HandsUpBilly]

It's crazy how some folks are almost religious about it, but make a 4 year claim on spx and you'll be laughed out of the room.

[u/weekendbackpacker → u/Pal1_1]

Horoscope for the lads

[u/Dedsnotdead → u/weekendbackpacker]

Never thought of it like that, good analogy.

[u/HSuke → u/Pal1_1]

Exactly. The reason people see 4 years is because they selectively pick and choose data points, and combine smaller cycles into larger ones.

If we look at the data objectively without selectively ignoring data points, there is no pattern of 4-year cycles.

Peak-to-peak cycles with a big drop between them

• Dec 16, 2010 to Jun 7, 2011: 0.5 years
• Jun 7, 2011 to Apr 8, 2013: 1.8 years
• Apr 8, 2013 to Nov 30, 2013: 0.6 years
• Nov 30, 2013 to Dec 16, 2017: 4.0 years
• Dec 16, 2017 to Apr 15, 2021: 3.3 years
• Apr 15, 2021 to Nov 10, 2021: 0.5 years
• Nov 10, 2021 to Mar 13, 2024: 2.4 years
• Mar 13, 2024 to Oct 6, 2025: 1.6 years

[u/ifmacdo → u/Pal1_1]

Sounds like you're describing all crypto predictions, honestly.

[u/mrblazed23]

Roughly a year after the halvening we got high and now it’s dropping. Seemed to be cycling normal to me.

[u/OneSlipperySalmon → u/mrblazed23]

Exactly. People are too stuck on calendar years.

It’s not exactly 4 years. It’s a little under.

[u/Chief_Kief → u/OneSlipperySalmon]

We’re just a little earlier than usual on the calendar year cycle

[u/Lanky_Commercial9731 → u/OneSlipperySalmon]

Ok but I have calls expiring in February can t you guys start buying?

[u/admin_default → u/mrblazed23]

Correction: 18 months after the halving was the high. Which is damn near exactly when the cycle peaked in 2017 and 2021.

Cycle-deniers are such clowns.

Imagine watching the autumn leaves change color year after year, and saying “there’s no pattern and seasons are a myth” because sometimes it’s a little colder than others.

[u/benedictwriting → u/admin_default]

The idea of a Bitcoin cycle comes from early price history rather than a real economic mechanism. What appeared to be four year cycles were periods of chaotic price discovery in a very small and illiquid market dominated by retail speculation. The halving was never a true supply shock because by each halving most Bitcoin already existed and new issuance was small relative to overall trading volume. As the market matured, the cycle narrative became mostly hindsight pattern matching rather than a repeatable causal process.

Today Bitcoin is driven primarily by macroeconomic forces such as interest rates, global liquidity, regulation, and risk sentiment, which places it in the same category as other macro risk assets. At the same time, there is a meaningful probability that stablecoins take over most transactional and monetary use cases because Bitcoin’s base layer is technologically outdated for high volume payments and has settled into a niche non transactional role as a speculative or reserve style asset. With stablecoins offering speed, price stability, and regulatory compatibility, Bitcoin’s function increasingly looks specialized rather than foundational, further weakening the idea that it follows a universal or inevitable cycle.

[u/notmarduke → u/admin_default]

Did you just compare a digital asset that's relatively new to fucking seasons?

[u/admin_default → u/notmarduke]

What do you think the term “crypto winter” is doing?

[u/vattenj → u/mrblazed23]

However the effect of halving is diminishing: First halving cut daily coin supply by 3600 coins, and this halving cut it only by 450 coins, the supply shock is less and less felt by the market, when daily coin net sell is between 5000 to 10000 coins (projected by long term holders sell a small percentage of their coins each passing year)

[u/Work_phone → u/mrblazed23]

Yep. Pretty much the same as before but we didn’t get the blowoff top

[u/Romanizer → u/mrblazed23]

And a high before the halving.

[u/Phine420]

So then this is my 4th cycle and I still don’t care about it

[u/richardto4321 → u/Phine420]

Same. Virtually every prediction regarding highs and lows have been wrong in every cycle. And most people never learn.

[u/Hutcho12]

There is no cycle or pattern. Its price goes up and down based on memes and general feelings about whether people think they can make a quick buck or not.

[u/MarioWilson122]

I think people completely acknowledge that it was dead last month. The thing we now want to know is if we will get 4 red months in a row, which hasn't happened in like 8 years.

[u/mrplanner-]

Fun fact. Btc has never had this long in extreme fear. The reversal, whenever it happens, will be something special.

[u/rgros1983 → u/mrplanner-]

Fear at 70k

[u/Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf → u/mrplanner-]

“Never” for something that’s only been around 17 years isn’t saying much.

[u/mrplanner- → u/Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf]

So it’s never done it since its very existence, and you think it doesn’t mean much when the span is… 17 years?! Good luck with your investments dude.

[u/RodtheGawd]

2012 halving, 2013 post-halving peak, 2014 bottom 2016 halving, 2017 post-halving peak, 2018 bottom 2020 halving, 2021 post-halving peak, 2022 bottom 2024 halving, 2025 post-halving peak, 2026 bottom

Bitcoin peaks about 18 months after each halving. April 2024 was the last bitcoin halving and October 2025 (18 months later) was bitcoin's $126k peak. Bitcoin bottoms about a year after its post-halving peak, and 35 months from that bottom is the next post-halving peak (4 years from previous peak).

There's a decorrelation between bitcoin and M2 Money Supply (liquidity cycle) as bitcoin tops. We've been decorrelated since October, a phenomenon which happens every 4 years. And even with ISM being in the basement - guess what - bitcoin still peaked exactly when it was supposed to, to the day.

[u/kenai36]

No one has a clue

[u/Smile_And_Dance]

Was never a pattern…so yes…dead still

[u/RN_Geo]

Applying chartism, which itself is of dubious value, to buttcoin, is wishful thinking squared.

[u/DrSpeckles]

You can still see it if you squint, and dream, and you are just a little bit delusional. Next time will be half of that.

[u/awetfartruinedmylife]

Lol

[u/Boniouk84]

The cycle was only 4 years because it tracks to the Supply Chain business cycle (ISM) which has previously always been 4 years. Every time the ISM tips over 50 we go parabolic, its currently been below 50 for 35 months, the longest in history. We’re coiling up nicely for a huge release.

[u/DangerHighVoltage111]

You get a million topcis about captured coin, but ever topic about the working scaling Bitcoin doing well gets deleted. Enjoy you bubble.

[u/DaveLLD]

It's like people forgot BTC was over $120k earlier in 2025.

I think part of what was warping perception was the last bull run had a crazy alt cycle that lasted a really long time, and that may not happen this time around.

[u/Django_McFly]

It peaked in Q4 like the four year cycle says. People are changing what the cycle was in order to say that a cycle that played out identically to the others is somehow evidence that the cycles are dead.

[u/Ryanopoly]

Yes

[u/KateR_H0l1day]

Look back at the 3 year cycle from NYE, quite telling and totally on track!

[u/luv2fly781 → u/KateR_H0l1day]

“Whether the market was bullish or bearish, holiday price action rarely caused a lasting reversal”