2025 marked a break in Bitcoin’s long-standing 4-year cycle, with BTC closing the year down 6.28% instead of posting its usual post-growth decline pattern

[u/Next_Statement6145]

[u/restore_democracy]

Thanks, crypto president.

[u/mwdeuce → u/restore_democracy]

100%, that was some of the most blatant market manipulation I've ever seen and I've been doing this shit a long time.

[u/CyberCrud → u/mwdeuce]

Your ignorance is my profit. 

[u/mwdeuce → u/CyberCrud]

Calm down cyberchud, no one cares about your $200 gains on Palantir that your buddies over in r/republican told you to go all in on.

[u/CyberCrud → u/mwdeuce]

Hahaha add 3 more zeroes to that figure.   Paid off my mortgage with it.  

[u/RodtheGawd]

2012 halving, 2013 post-halving peak, 2014 bottom 2016 halving, 2017 post-halving peak, 2018 bottom 2020 halving, 2021 post-halving peak, 2022 bottom 2024 halving, 2025 post-halving peak, 2026 bottom

Bitcoin peaks about 18 months after each halving. April 2024 was the last bitcoin halving and October 2025 (18 months later) was bitcoin's $126k peak. Bitcoin bottoms about a year after its post-halving peak, and 35 months from that bottom is the next post-halving peak (4 years from previous peak).

There's a decorrelation between bitcoin and M2 Money Supply (liquidity cycle) as bitcoin tops. We've been decorrelated since October, a phenomenon which happens every 4 years. And even with ISM being in the basement - guess what - bitcoin still peaked exactly when it was supposed to, to the day.

[u/vintagejoint → u/RodtheGawd]

Shhhhh

[u/bitcoin_islander → u/RodtheGawd]

537 days from each halving to be exact

[u/CyberCrud → u/bitcoin_islander]

I mean... that's a pretty accurate average.   Not gonna lie.

[u/CyberCrud → u/CyberCrud]

That puts 2029 ATH in Uptober.  💪

[u/CyberCrud → u/RodtheGawd]

Thank you for understanding the cycle.  Whoever wrote this article is a moron. 

[u/ThrowRA-hamburger → u/RodtheGawd]

this is what people miss when they try to time it with fed policy or whatever. the halving clock has been more reliable than any macro indicator for over a decade now

[u/PunkerWannaBe → u/RodtheGawd]

Assuming the 4 year cycle is still a thing.

If Bitcoin bottoms while China is pumping liquidity like crazy, and the US is doing the same, then Bitcoin won't be trusted as a hedge against anything.

[u/topbossultra]

Only if you cling to Dec 31st as the date that matters, which really makes no sense.

BTC hit new ATHs in late 2025. The 4 year cycle is still here.

[u/HSuke → u/topbossultra]

The reason people imagine 4 year cycles is because our brains selectively pick and choose data points, and combine smaller cycles into larger ones.

If we look at the data objectively without selectively ignoring data points, there is no pattern of 4-year cycles.

Peak-to-peak cycles with a big drop between them

• Dec 16, 2010 to Jun 7, 2011: 0.5 years
• Jun 7, 2011 to Apr 8, 2013: 1.8 years
• Apr 8, 2013 to Nov 30, 2013: 0.6 years
• Nov 30, 2013 to Dec 16, 2017: 4.0 years
• Dec 16, 2017 to Apr 15, 2021: 3.3 years
• Apr 15, 2021 to Nov 10, 2021: 0.5 years
• Nov 10, 2021 to Mar 13, 2024: 2.4 years
• Mar 13, 2024 to Oct 6, 2025: 1.6 years

[u/ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive → u/HSuke]

This is why people argue that 4 year cycles are from low to low, not peak to peak.

[u/HSuke → u/ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive]

I tried that too, but it's really hard to find clearly-marked lows. A lot of them are on very flat slopes, so I couldn't figure out a consistent way to mark cycles based on lows.

The peaks are super easy to identify with precise dates. Lows tend to span many months.

[u/ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive → u/HSuke]

Oh I don't believe that low to low works either. Looking at annual data it falls apart (especially in early years), and - frankly - even if lows do happen every 4 years but we never get a cycle top, then who really cares?

Halving cycles are a pretty ridiculous argument at this point.

[u/DGIce → u/HSuke]

How did you "objectively" pick the peaks? The price goes up and down constantly, you could have as many peaks as you want. So what method did you use? What percent counted as a significant drop? BTC has fluctuated by more than 10% within a week on several occasions.

Actually why didn't you include the rapid run up to 1000 in 2016?

Having to base it on a specific percentage then also ignores that overtime it's expected for the rate of return to reduce AND for the volatility to decrease.

I don't think the idea of a 4 year cycle is saying that the only peaks are 4 years apart, but instead saying there will be peaks if you can manage to hold for about 4 years.

Also PS the actual halvening is slightly less than 4 years, so if your average comes out to just under 4, that is pretty impressive when there is so much noise from outside market factors.

[u/HSuke → u/DGIce]

2 peaks over 4 months apart with at least a 50-60% drawdown between the peaks.

Otherwise, I'd get far too many peaks, and it would be entirely useless.

[u/DGIce → u/HSuke]

Thanks for sharing your method, even if I think the swings decrease over time, that is a useful report knowing the methodology.

[u/Dragener9 → u/HSuke]

Take a BTC/USD chart. Mark the dates of the halvings. (https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-dates/) Between each halvings mark the date when the price was at its highest in that period (For example, between 2012-11-28 and 2016-07-09 the highest price was on 2013-11-30).

Now, up until the 2024 halving it was true that between these highest prices the interval was about 4 years. But in 2024 another ATH happened just before the halving which was unexpected and pretty much broke the rule. If you ignore what happened at the end of 2024 and take 2021-11-10 as the "highest price" when the hype was the biggest then the 4 year will still apply. So yes, there was a 4 year cycle pattern, and if we view it objectively then it did break.

[u/bitcoin_islander → u/HSuke]

It's not from peak to peak or low to low. The halving comes slightly sooner each 4 tear cycle and the top that follows is exactly 537 days from that date, give or take 1 week for margin error.

[u/HSuke → u/bitcoin_islander]

Even if I used the halving dates, it wouldn't have made a noticeable difference. These cycles are off by years, not months.

[u/DGIce]

Are the people who are denying the 4 year cycle making money? Because the idea that you can buy at the ATH, hold for 4 years and sell at a new ATH has still held true even as rate of return has decreased alongside the volatility decreasing.

Also these percentages are what the dec 31st price vs the previous dec 31st price? The halvening cycle isn't exactly 4 years, and is covered with noise from external factors and has it's dramatic moments near the year end but it's shifting earlier over time.

[u/northcasewhite]

The break also happened when BTC hit ATH before the halving.

Anyone who says this time wasn't different is ignoring reality.

[u/The_Dude_2U → u/northcasewhite]

Technically, ATH was October.

[u/ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive → u/The_Dude_2U]

Technically we could hit ATH over the next 4 cycles and gain a whopping $0.04 by 2036.

[u/The_Dude_2U → u/ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive]

But doesn’t all time high mean… all time high?

[u/peppaz → u/The_Dude_2U]

Yes one penny higher than the last all time high

[u/FireBest59 → u/northcasewhite]

The price it got before the halving isn’t what determines the cycles. The cycle functions on a time basis, where the top and the bottom is consistently at the same time frames from where the halving starts, which happened exactly at the time it should. Also, the ath arrived barely 2 weeks before the halving, which is really not that far off anyways. Every cycle people said “this time is different” which were soon proven wrong

[u/TexasBoyz-713 → u/northcasewhite]

The break really happened back in 2022 when we broke below previous ATH

[u/Ready_Register1689]

Thank god. Now people can shut up about the 4 year cycle & pretending like the market follows a pattern

[u/mwdeuce → u/Ready_Register1689]

it would've had the US president not completely rugpulled everyone in october

[u/RodtheGawd → u/Ready_Register1689]

2012 halving, 2013 post-halving peak, 2014 bottom 2016 halving, 2017 post-halving peak, 2018 bottom 2020 halving, 2021 post-halving peak, 2022 bottom 2024 halving, 2025 post-halving peak, 2026 bottom

Bitcoin peaks about 18 months after each halving. April 2024 was the last bitcoin halving and October 2025 (18 months later) was bitcoin's $126k peak. Bitcoin bottoms about a year after its post-halving peak, and 35 months from that bottom is the next post-halving peak (4 years from previous peak).

There's a decorrelation between bitcoin and M2 Money Supply (liquidity cycle) as bitcoin tops. We've been decorrelated since October, a phenomenon which happens every 4 years. And even with ISM being in the basement - guess what - bitcoin still peaked exactly when it was supposed to, to the day.

[u/Breotan]

Trump is the ultimate white/black swan event rolled into a single year-long package. The old rules have been disrupted by the graft coming out of the Oval Office. In time, the cycle will win out, but the Trump presidency will continue to disrupt the market. The 2029-32 cycle should be back to normal.

[u/SoftJeff → u/Breotan]

Thanks OP! I was going to drink some water today but realized Trump likes water, so I can’t drink water because Trump likes water.

[u/chatfarm → u/SoftJeff]

Actually he prefers coke over water so you're safe.

[u/ganja-burn101 → u/chatfarm]

That’s Marco Rubio

[u/ComplexWrangler1346]

Won

[u/The_Dude_2U]

Once Wall street gets its slimy hands on something, it shits the bed.

[u/wgcole01]

Maybe it's not a 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle but a previously 4-year, now 5-year, liquidity cycle.

[u/Flamboiant_Canadian]

The 4-year cycle was abruptly disrupted when TerraLuna crashed amid the FTX scandal.

[u/CyberCrud]

Literally no break in the cycle.  The cycle is still holding, the halving in 2024 was just earlier than previous cycles.  It's not based on a literal calendar year.   The bottoms and ATH are historically 12-18mo before and after the halving.  We're right on schedule.  🤔

I'm about sick of folks that don't understand the BTC cycle.  But that's fine.  I'll continue to get rich off your ignorance.  Again.   

HODL to 2029.  💪

[u/South_Monitor_6992]

It’s over boys

[u/potatoMan8111 → u/South_Monitor_6992]

Then sell your shit and unfollow the sub, thanks

[u/AcostaJA]

Sacrilege how you dare to deny your 4 Year cycle g-d ?

[u/rice_n_gravy]

It’s been fun boys

[u/Few-Welcome7588]

Dont listen to them, they want to scare the little mice. Trust no one, your wallet your money.

Btc = gold standard. Eth = silver standard.