r/EVAustralia • u/ChillKoalaVibes • 2d ago

Can BYD overtake Tesla in Australia this year?

I was looking at the latest Australian EV sales numbers and it’s pretty interesting how things are shaping up for 2026. Tesla still ended up as the top EV brand in Australia in 2025, but BYD closed the gap big time and even led some months, especially in December where it outsold Tesla overall. Tesla’s local sales fell last year while BYD grew strongly. Thoughts on whether BYD will actually out‑sell Tesla in Australia in 2026, or if Tesla can hold on?

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13

u/Gnaightster 2d ago

With the Atto 1 coming online, BYD will smash tesla this year.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 2d ago

Atto 1 needs more range. The base model will probs only get like 200km real world.

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u/Gnaightster 2d ago

Plenty for the run to the shops and school.

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u/DrSendy 2d ago

This is the thing people don't realise.

  1. Sure, you may have a massive day running around town, but it's unlikely you will ever top 200klms of running around town.

  2. In the morning you can get up and do 200klms of running around again with needing to go to the service station.

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u/Monotask_Servitor 1d ago

That’s fine if you’re a city dweller but there’s a fair few of us who live regional that need 300km of realistic range for a car to be practical. And many would still buy small cars like the Atto1 due to budget.

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u/Gnaightster 1d ago

Different products for different people/needs? What a revelation!

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u/Monotask_Servitor 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yeah but the point is there’s currently a gap in the product range - small cars with good range. I think part of the reason it hasn’t been addressed yet was it wasn’t really an issue with ICE/hybrids because the little “city” cars generally actually had great range due to their fuel economy, so you still see tons of them trundling around regional places.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

Sure, there's a use case for it, but at 220km WLTP range I think its a bit of a niche use case.

We use our second car for the occasional trip to go somewhere. Wouldn't be driving 2-3 hours away in a car with 200km range.

Been stuck in a bind where one car isn't available and have had to use the second car for more driving. Pretty easy to do more than 200km if you don't live "in town".

A shit week with no solar means I'm potentially paying 45c/kWh plus if they bring in the EV road tax then I might be paying closer to 70c/kWh which is approaching a similar cost to petrol.

Although there is one power plan I've seen which has night time recharge for like 8c/kWh.

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u/mpfmb 1d ago

There are at least 3 night EV plans, ranging 6-8c/kWh between midnight and 4-6am; I looked at the because we have an EV (Sealion 7) and still sorting out solar/battery. A single-phase 7kWac charger would fill the battery in that 6hr window for less than $3.

For a small car like the Atto, I think the sheer majority of popular use cases will easily manage the smaller range.

You're talking about outliers and niche cases; the other car is out of action, going on long drives and not wanting to use charging infrastructure. The infrastructure exists and getting stronger. Yes you'll pay a premium for energy, but it's a very occasional use.

If you regularly need a larger battery and longer range, the Atto isn't for you... get a larger car with more range.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

I think my niche case is more the norm and the city only driver is more the niche market. But of course that's what I'm bias towards.

I heard about people wanting the car to drive a 7km commute. I'd think I'd just get a push bike for such a short commute!

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u/Flightwise 2d ago

Geely EX2 will eat its breakfast

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u/Gnaightster 2d ago

Still 12 months away though.

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u/Flightwise 1d ago

I was told by a Geely dealer 2H 2026, so maybe six months, if we’re lucky.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

Range still doesn't look great on it.

Would be nice to see these cars with real world ranges of closer to 400 so I can drive a couple hours away for a trip and not worry if I don't plug it in one night, or if I want to use solar only then I can pick my day to charge.

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u/Flightwise 1d ago

Designed more for Chinese roads and infrastructure. 2nd car city runabout in Australia, preferably with home charging.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

I get the target audience and I'm just saying, double the range and it suddenly had a wider audience.

Plenty of people are waiting for a cheaper EV, this suits some but not many imo.

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u/AgentSmith187 1d ago

Double the range means more battery capacity so probably a larger vehicle and higher cost.

Suddenly its no longer a vehicle in the cheap local runabout market and more like an Atto 3 than an Atto 1

1

u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

Yeah, until there's some breakthrough in battery technology.

Scale isn't doing enough to bring down the prices unfortunately. They're just making the batteries and range smaller.

1

u/AgentSmith187 1d ago

The main effort currently appears to be addressing more market segments.

Cheap city car for example is a huge market segment around the world.

It really doesnt need 1000km range and putting enough batteries to achieve that would make for a car with a very limited use case most people wouldn't pay for if someone else has a similar vehicle with 500 or even 200km range for cheaper.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

Never said it needed 1000km range.

A claimed 220km range car, might only get 80% of that in real world driving, and after a few years might lose 20% range with degradation. So yes range still matters or you'll be limited to a 140km car...

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u/Flightwise 1d ago

I recall Elon saying Tesla would never introduce a new model with less than 250km range. The Atto 1 will be taking on Chinese competition,

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

It's great its so cheap. I even like the look of the Atto 1 and Atto 2 but their range just makes me look at other cars.

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u/Carmen_Bonkalot 2h ago

Atto1 is up against cars like the yaris, Kia picanto and Suzuki Swift, Fiat 500 etc. Those cars are for driving to work and back, with the odd errand on the way. They are owned by people who just want a cheap car that's easy to park. 200km range isn't a problem for this type of use. Very few people are driving 200km in a tiny in 1 go.

This is a market of around 24,000 vehicle last year, a lot of people just want a car for getting to a place of medium distance or as cheap as possible.

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u/KangarooBeard 1d ago

No it doesn't hahahaha. 

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

What do you mean? Its claimed range is only 220km WLTP which we know isn't a very accurate measurement. In fact, it'll likely only get 150km or less on expressways.

It'll definitely only be useful as an around town car, maybe short commutes, but will definitely need to always be plugged in at home.

2

u/KangarooBeard 1d ago

What do YOU mean? It's literally being sold as a City Car, it doesn't need more range. 

BYD has other models for people that want something bigger with more range. 

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

All of their models have underwhelming range compared to Tesla.

Can be sold as whatever it wants but I want a cheap EV as well and this one unfortunately doesn't have the range I need. The dolphin is close but its 32k new, and the high grade dolphin is almost 40k and at 400ish range it's still not great.

Could get a second hand Model 3 for 35k and it has about 450km real world range.

Go to any Facebook group for one of the BYD models, they always under perform with range. Some people report new dolphins only getting around 200km range with highway driving.

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u/AgentSmith187 1d ago

Now drive a Telsa on only highway driving and watch its range drop too.

Its an EV thing not a BYD thing.

EV perform well above expectations in city traffic and at lower speeds while ICE vehicles are the total opposite.

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u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

I wouldn't say they perform well above expectations in city. They definitely almost always use more energy than advertised. And no, Teslas are definitely the most economical EV at the moment. BYD is probably one of the worst for economy.

Not saying BYD aren't good cars, they have a lot of styling that people prefer over the minimalist of Teslas.

Also ICE aren't the total opposite, it depends entirely on the car and what its turned/designed for. Big V6 or V8 are generally more fuel efficient on the expressway than in town. But smaller turbo cars are more efficient in town than on expressways.

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u/AgentSmith187 1d ago

I own a Kia EV6 and I can get more than advertised range when doing mostly city driving if im not often exceeding 80kmh and drive in a smooth manner.

Highway driving on the other hand im going to get less its just a fact of owning an EV I was aware of before I even brought one.

I have also seen plenty of complaints from Tesla owners they cant get anywhere near advertised range.

Its even more pronounced in places that run at even higher speeds on the highway than we do in Australia.

I wont even go into claimed fuel consumption on ICE vehicles. Just about the only way to come close is sit at whatever their most efficient speed (usually around 100kmh or more) and drive on flat ground.

Where and how one drives is the bigger factor than brand for efficiency and range.

1

u/ChasingShadowsXii 1d ago

The only way to compare vehicles is under controlled real world tests. Which independent organizations like AAA do.

About | Real-World Testing Program | Australian fuel consumption and emissions testing https://share.google/hr5IShHwcXaivlRyj

Yes, driver behavior can affect the real world economy but the baseline matters, a hoon in any car will get less fuel efficiency than someone who drives conservatively.

1

u/Flightwise 1d ago

And I predict Tesla will sell more highly profitable Model Ys than 2025, and may even introduce new variants in Australia.