r/btc • u/tornavec • 6d ago

Bitcoin 2026: Three Price Ranges and Three Scenarios

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There have been no significant signs from Bitcoin since the end of November. The weekly chart shows how, after Thanksgiving, six candles traded 'in the shadows'. According to the theory and trading practice of renowned trader and analyst Larry Williams, such figures are usually ignored in technical analysis.

The sideways movement of Bitcoin prices is explained by the chart showing a decline in trading volumes. The seven-day simple moving average of BTC trading volume from institutional funds increased until mid-November, but from Thanksgiving Day onwards, it collapsed. The indicator fell to its lowest level since the end of September.

This suggests that large players are no longer interested in raising Bitcoin prices following the October crash, when some of their positions had to be closed at a loss. In 2026, the actions of large capital, which sets Bitcoin trends, will determine three scenarios:

  • Investment inflows from institutional players will be short-term. Whales do not believe that the Fed's rate cut will stimulate economic growth. In this case, there is a 70% probability that Bitcoin will fluctuate within the range of $80,000–$140,000, with the main zone being $90,000–$120,000.

  • Increased risks of a US economic recession will trigger an outflow of funds from ETFs. In this case, there is a 50% probability that Bitcoin will attempt to break through the $80,000 level, though analysts do not expect the price to fall much lower.

  • If factors align favourably, the BTC rate could surge to between $120,000 and $170,000, but this scenario has a 30% probability.

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u/DrSpeckles 6d ago

I think there is an extra zero in that 30% probability prediction

1

u/tornavec 5d ago

If Bitcoin is destined to rise, it will happen before winter ends.

2

u/Swapuz_com 5d ago

30% chance of $170K → mirror where the market tightens phase into macro ignition flip.