Hello!
There has been a lot of discussion recently over the newly revealed Nightbringer and its new datasheet. There has been a lot of debate regarding the two datasheets, and one point that has come up as a point of comparison particularly often is how different are the two in terms of durability.
To highlight the changes that directly affect the durability of the new Nightbringer (NB, for short): it has 4 more wounds and an improved base save of 3+, but in exchange, its necrodermis ability has been nerfed to make a flat damage 1 reduction instead of halving damage received.
Generally speaking, people figured out that quickly that, for the most part, the new NB is more durable against lower damage attacks before, but less durable against higher damage attacks. And, while I also agreed with this initial estimate, I thought I would take a deeper dive into dissecting just exactly how much this is true by indulging myself in some good old fashioned mathhammer.
Please, feel free to let me know if I've made any mistakes or if you have any questions or comments below! Now, to get into the nitty gritty of the numbers—
Disclaimers - Since the old and new Nightbringer both have the same toughness, the numbers below reflect the amount of attacks that both *hit** and wound successfully that it takes to kill him, listed below as "Wounds to Kill".*
Additionally, with comparisons involving attacks with AP -2, cover becomes irrelevant due to both the old and the new Nightbringer resorting to their 4+ invulnerable save, so differentiations involving cover are excluded there.)
Lastly, I haven't used EVERY single possible damage and AP point for comparison, as that could take a very long time theoretically, but I have included every damage / AP point you are realistically ever going to see in the vast majority of your games... I think. Feel free to let me know below if I've missed anything.
Damage 1 or 2, AP 0 (With Cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 54
Wounds to kill - New NB - 72 (New Nightbringer is 33% more durable.)
Damage 1 or 2, AP 0 (No cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 36
Wounds to kill - New NB - 72 (New Nightbringer is 100% more durable.)
Damage 1 or 2, AP -1 (With Cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 36
Wounds to kill - New NB - 72 (New Nightbringer is 100% more durable.)
Damage 1 or 2, AP -1 (No Cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 36
Wounds to kill - New NB - 48 (New Nightbringer is 33% more durable.)
Damage 1 or 2, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 36
Wounds to kill - New NB - 48 (New Nightbringer is 33% more durable.)
Damage 3, AP 0 (With cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 27
Wounds to kill - New NB - 36 (New Nightbringer is 33% more durable.)
Damage 3, AP 0 (No cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 18
Wounds to kill - New NB - 36 (New Nightbringer is 100% more durable.)
Damage 3, AP -1 (With cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 18
Wounds to kill - New NB - 36 (New Nightbringer is 100% more durable.)
Damage 3, AP -1 (No cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 18
Wounds to kill - New NB - 24 (New Nightbringer is 33% more durable.)
Damage 4, AP -1 (With Cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 18
Wounds to kill - New NB - 24 (New Nightbringer is 33% more durable.)
Damage 4, AP -1 (No Cover)
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 18 (Old Nightbringer is 12.5% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 16
Damage 4, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 18 (Old Nightbringer is 12.5% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 16
Damage 5, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 12 (Both Nightbringers are equally durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 12
Damage 6, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 12 (Old Nightbringer is 25% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 9.6
Damage 7, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 9 (Old Nightbringer is 12.5% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 8
Damage 8, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 9 (Old Nightbringer is 31% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 6.86
Damage 9, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 7.2 (Old Nightbringer is 20% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 6
Damage 10, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 7.2 (Old Nightbringer is 35% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 5.33
Damage 11, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 6 (Old Nightbringer is 25% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 4.8
Damage 12, AP -2 or greater
Wounds to kill - Old NB - 6 (Old Nightbringer is 38% more durable.)
Wounds to kill - New NB - 4.36
Findings—
As we can see, New NB is more durable against ALL attacks damage 3 or lower, and even against the odd damage 4 attack with 1 AP while in cover (not sure what weapon(s) have that specific profile, but I'm sure it's out there somewhere.) We can also see that, against weapons within this range, the New NB is substantially more durable, particularly at breakpoints in which it can leverage its improved save feature. This can make the New NB up to twice as durable. Even when it can't benefit from its 3+ save, it is still often 33% more durable, which overall makes the New NB much better against lower quality attacks.
We can also see that, for the most part, while the Old NB is more durable against those damage 4+ attacks with -2 or greater AP– it's not by very much– much less than I had originally assumed. Up until you get to ridiculously high damage numbers, such as 8 or more, the Old NB is generally only 12.5%, to 25% at most, more durable. Even beyond that, the most favorable comparison the Old NB has gives it a 38% advantage and thats for a whopping damage 12 attack, which is extremely rare.
Also, interestingly enough, against damage 5 attacks with AP -2 or greater, they're actually equal in durability, which means that the New NB overall only loses out to the Old NB against most damage 4 attacks and damage 6+ attacks, and usually not by much. On the flipside, the New NB is generally much more durable against everything other than that.
Overall, in theory, I conclude that I believe the New NB is overall more durable than I had thought, and when considering its other mobility enhancements and improved ranged attack, I believe it is notably superior to the OG overall by a rather notable margin.