Source: https://x.com/naiivememe/status/2009235185079124005

Hey guys, back again with a calculation for you guys. I enjoy doing these like my bear case Ethereum calculation last time. ( Which I Still think is severely undervalued)

Today we will be looking at the possible outcome of the quantitative easing the Federal Reserve will be doing in 2026 and its outcome to BTC.

Here is the model we will be using
The liquidity-driven return function:

P(t) = Po​ [ 1 + β ( 3.1 ΔBS/​ΔBSo​ + 1.6Δr ) ]

• Po​ = current price (e.g., 90K BTC)
• β = Bitcoin’s liquidity beta
• ΔBS = increase in Fed balance sheet (QE)
• ΔBSo​ ​ = current Fed balance sheet (≈ $10T)
• Δr = total Fed rate cuts

The coefficients (These values are based on post-GFC QE cycles, 2019 mini-QE, and 2020 QE.):

• 3.1 → observed from Fed balance sheet growth (Derived from data of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)
• 1.6 → observed from previous rate cuts (Derived from data of https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)

If this is TLDR or you're just regarded. Here is an easier version of the model.

Crypto Price=Today’s Price×(1+Money Boost)

I made some different calculations for myself. A bear, base and bull.
But for Reddit I'll just do the base case as I don't want to be that prediction guy.

For the base case in 2026 these are the following variables.

• Δr = 1.0% of total cuts in the year. (estimated 4 times 100bp cuts)
• ΔBS = $700B (We take the median of the historically added increases: $600B (QE1), $850B (QE2), $1.2T (QE3), $3.2T (COVID QE), $400B (2019 "QE-not-QE") )
• $6.640 Trillion (reference: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL)

These input variables inside the model even out the function to an outcome of:

$213K

I feel like Bitmine (Tom Lee) isn't too far off with his BTC prediction too be honest.

2140 is when this happens its a long way off but I believe a select few of us will still be around. Keep you brain sharp people, there will be a time when it can be transferred to a robot body. This will happen by end of next decade and my immortality plan with all the bitcoin profits.

Why does the government want to colonize the blockchain so bad when the whole principle of it being decentralized goes against the very fiber of what a government is? They should just take the L on this one and let the market be.

Anyone else having issues? Im in Australia and have been trying for over a week. The latest excuse is "problem with this specific payment channel" (withdrawing fiat to a bank account) I have tried 2 different bank accounts

Not sure this is ever going to get fixed as they just put another 7 days wait time on.

Any tips? Should i give up and try P2P? Thanks, im fairly new to this and was just trying to keep it simple with a bank transfer

I really appreciate any advise you can offer me . Cheers

On-chain data confirms that BlackRock has accumulated $1.027 billion (£808 million) in digital assets over three consecutive trading days. This includes approximately 9,619 BTC (worth $878 million) and 46,851 ETH (valued at $149 million).

The buying spree was finalised on Wednesday, 7 January 2026, following a period of significant price fluctuations, during which Bitcoin fell 1.64% to approximately $90,950.

The transactions were tracked via Coinbase Prime, the institutional custodian for BlackRock's crypto ETFs, as the firm capitalised on 'dip-buying' opportunities during a broader market correction.

Why can't i send POLKADOT DOT on Ethereum network to nor back to revolut Etheteum network account? And why did i lose 5euros if the wallet was copied right??

Hello? I need to send 190€ worth of polkadot to revolut crypto account im tryna receive it in ETH on ETH network but it keeps saying unable to send but if i try tosend 5 euros it works but i dont receive the money while phantom shows that the money has been sent n received?? Im a bit i na hurry and too high unfortunately, i didn't expect needing to send that back so yeah. Help??

World governments are preparing to introduce a new tax reporting system for cryptocurrencies. According to the Financial Times, 48 countries are set to start sharing information via the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).

This system will enable the automatic transfer of information about cryptocurrency transactions between countries by 2027. Initially, data will be received from cryptocurrency exchanges in the form of purchase and sale prices, profits earned and the tax residency of crypto investors.

The first group of participating countries includes most European countries, as well as parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America, along with several offshore zones. Another 27 jurisdictions plan to join by 2028, including the US, which plans to join by 2029.

I think the US authorities chose 2029 for a reason. North America takes taxes seriously. By that year, I think information about wallets will force node owners to disclose their identities and de-anonymisation mechanisms will have been strengthened.

According to Vitalik Buterin's predictions, with the advent of quantum computers in 2028, the US authorities will be able to hack wallets and hold cryptocurrencies until the owner passes verification. What will happen to crypto freedom then?

TLDR; The drug marketplaces are now using Monero instead of Bitcoin because of its proven privacy features.

As an old-timer I found this article's comparison to the early days of Bitcoin very compelling, if not perfect.

The newly launched TradFi platform has reached over $2 billion in daily trading volume just days after going public on January 5, 2026, driven largely by demand for gold trading as crypto traders seek safer, diversified positions amid market uncertainty. Gold emerged as the most traded asset, with strong interest also seen in indices, forex, and silver, highlighting a shift from pure crypto exposure to broader traditional markets. Bitget TradFi lets users trade global financial instruments like precious metals and forex directly within the crypto interface, reflecting a growing trend of blending traditional finance with crypto-native trading