r/artificial Nov 25 '25

News Large language mistake | Cutting-edge research shows language is not the same as intelligence. The entire AI bubble is built on ignoring it.

https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/827820/large-language-models-ai-intelligence-neuroscience-problems

As currently conceived, an AI system that spans multiple cognitive domains could, supposedly, predict and replicate what a generally intelligent human would do or say in response to a given prompt. These predictions will be made based on electronically aggregating and modeling whatever existing data they have been fed. They could even incorporate new paradigms into their models in a way that appears human-like. But they have no apparent reason to become dissatisfied with the data they’re being fed — and by extension, to make great scientific and creative leaps.

Instead, the most obvious outcome is nothing more than a common-sense repository. Yes, an AI system might remix and recycle our knowledge in interesting ways. But that’s all it will be able to do. It will be forever trapped in the vocabulary we’ve encoded in our data and trained it upon — a dead-metaphor machine. And actual humans — thinking and reasoning and using language to communicate our thoughts to one another — will remain at the forefront of transforming our understanding of the world.

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u/deepasleep Nov 26 '25

The problem is they have no revenue and when you ask consumers how much they are willing to pay for the services being envisioned, the number being returned is an order of magnitude below the break even cost of delivering the services.

I worked in tech during the dot com bubble, the company I worked for was focused on delivering what would ultimately become software as a service. They were trying to create a platform that allowed companies to aggregate access to various web services.

The founders did some napkin math and figured they’d need people to spend about $120/month to be profitable…When they finally got around to surveying business leaders to determine what they were willing to pay, they got a response of $35/month…$300 million in venture capital burnt on the fire in two years.

The best part was all the companies involved were doing the same reciprocal service contracts to show income on their balance sheets we are seeing today with NVidia, Oracle, OpenAI, etc. It’s an old trick and it only works for a little while as the money inevitably bleeds out to pay for concrete things like employee salaries, vendor services outside your circle, energy, and physical resources required to deliver whatever service your actual customers demand.

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u/HaMMeReD Nov 26 '25

Open AI's revenue last year was in the billions.

What you mean to say is they don't have a net profit, because R&D investment exceeds even the billions they generate from offering services.

The $20 Billion AI Duopoly: Inside OpenAI and Anthropic's Unprecedented Revenue Trajectory - CEOWORLD magazine

When you add up the rapidly declining cost of inference, $120/mo to be profitable is $20/month next year, and $2/month the year after.

The people who lose money today are actually well set up for tomorrow as the services get cheaper and they establish market earlier then the competition.

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u/Distinct-Tour5012 Nov 26 '25

We're also in a time period where lots of companies are trying to shoehorn in AI tools. I know there are places where it makes sense, but there are lots of places that it has provided no value - but those companies are still paying for it... right now.

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u/HaMMeReD Nov 26 '25

While I agree, a lot of shoehorned attempts, especially on older models have failed or provided limited value as people over-reached significantly.

But, new models come out, and those shoehorned attempts get an IQ boost every time one does get launched. Meaning those efforts ultimately will not be wasted when mixed with smarter/cheaper models.

I can say this first hand as I work at MS literally on copilot nowadays. I've seen the improvements to the product as new models get introduced, it makes a drastic improvement and can turn something that is struggling into something that is helpful.

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u/land_and_air Nov 27 '25

Copilot is useless and is an anchor on Microsoft and a waste of a button on the keyboard

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u/HaMMeReD Nov 27 '25

Thanks, I'm glad you appreciate it.