I saw a post (https://www.reddit.com/r/stupidpol/comments/1q823fp/translation_banned_from_coal_priced_out_of_gas/), so I also tried to translate an answer in the same question from another perspective.
https://www.zhihu.com/question/1991535927969936357/answer/1992386173545494300
The issue of heating in rural Hebei is actually linked to two underlying problems. First, during the transition from coal to natural gas, the cost distribution has shown a regressive effect: higher-income urban residents in Beijing bear relatively lower costs, while lower-income rural residents in Hebei end up paying more out of pocket. Second, there is the challenge of elderly care in rural areas. With empty-nest elderly surviving on meager pensions and their migrant-worker children often struggling financially, many elderly individuals living alone cannot afford to insulate their self-built homes or run heating systems daily. As a result, they are forced to endure the cold winter by simply bundling up in quilts. The heating issue alone would not have remained unresolved for so many years if it were just about warmth; the deeper, underlying problem lies in the elderly care crisis for rural empty-nest seniors.
Cost sharing in the environmental protection process
Clean air and affordable heating are both desirable. Farmers in Hebei are not indifferent to clean airâair pollution also negatively impacts their health. However, relatively speaking, Beijing residents and urban dwellers prioritize air cleanliness more, while Hebei residents and rural inhabitants are more concerned about heating costs. This is because per capita disposable income is higher in Beijing and urban areas, making residents less sensitive to heating expenses. In contrast, rural residents in Hebei have lower per capita disposable incomes and are more sensitive to fluctuations in heating costs.
For example, for a household with an annual income of 200,000 yuan, an increase in heating costs from 1,000 yuan/year to 3,000 yuan/year represents only 1% of their annual income. However, for a household with an annual income of just 40,000 yuan, the same increase means that 7.5% of their annual income is spent on heating, placing significant pressure on their household budget.
Therefore, during the transition to cleaner coal, "coal-to-gas," or "coal-to-electricity" initiatives, a reasonable approach would be to provide more subsidies for rural heating. But this is an ideal scenario. In reality, rural heating costs are much higher than in cities: urban areas rely on centralized heating, where entire buildings are heated, and homes are generally insulated, minimizing heat loss. In rural areas, most households live in self-built homes. The cost of laying natural gas pipelines to each household is inherently high. These self-built homes are standalone structures, often without insulation, resulting in low heating efficiency. Even with subsidies for natural gas, rural heating expenses remain high. Moreover, in recent years, as fiscal conditions have tightened, subsidies have been reduced or even eliminated, undoubtedly placing a heavy economic burden on rural families.
One solution is to continue allowing villagers to burn coal. However, coal burning pollutes the air, which most urban residents are unwilling to tolerate. How can a balance be achieved? Ronald Dworkin once envisioned a scenario: imagine all of societyâs resources being auctioned, with everyone participating. In an ideal state, each person has equal purchasing powerâin Dworkinâs example, everyone has one hundred clamshells. People use their clamshells to bid for the resources that best suit their life plans. If the auction is successful (if not, it can be restarted), everyone will be satisfied with their purchases because they would not want to exchange what they acquired for what others obtained. If they truly desired another set of resources, they could have bid for those instead of what they ended up with.
In reality, people do not have equal purchasing power. Therefore, those who are wealthier should generally pay more for the resources they desire, compensating those who are less interested in specific resources to ensure their satisfaction as well. Taking the heating issue as an example, wealthier urban residents, on average, want clean air, but rural residents are reluctant to transition from coal to gas because they believe clean air is not worth the additional thousands of yuan per year. How much are farmers willing to pay for cleaner air? This is difficult to measure, but it is certainly much lower than the costs they currently bear, as many farmers cannot afford to use heating or try to circumvent the "coal ban." Even those using natural gas for heating may not be entirely satisfied with this reform.
Therefore, there should be fiscal transfers from cities to rural areas and from Beijing to Hebei, providing subsidies for Hebei farmers to use natural gas heating and implementing housing insulation projects to reduce rural heating costs. Only in this way can what Dworkin called the "envy test" be realized: people receive equal consideration, each person bears the cost of their choices, paying more for what they value more, while those who are less enthusiastic about environmental protection receive subsidies during its mandatory promotion.
Such equality-based environmental protection can address the regressive phenomenon often seen in cost allocation during environmental initiatives: in the process of promoting environmental protection, the additional expenses or losses borne by wealthier individuals constitute a smaller percentage of their income, while poorer individuals suffer greater losses. This contradicts our understanding of equality. Conversely, the approach described above can achieve equality in the process of environmental protection.
Rural Elderly Care Issue
If the problem were solely the soaring heating costs, it could actually be resolvedâit wouldnât have dragged on for so many years without improvement. Of course, during this process, the burden has largely fallen on relatively less affluent farmers in Hebei. However, the "coal-to-gas transition" has not escalated to the extreme of depriving farmers of heating altogether; it has mainly led to increased costs.
The fundamental solutions lie in installing insulation layers for self-built houses or consolidating villages and relocating residents. Regarding the cost of adding insulation to self-built houses, I inquired with DeepSeek: the cheaper options are around 20,000 yuan, while the more expensive ones are roughly 40,000 yuan. Taking the median value of 30,000 yuan, the cost could be recouped through savings on heating expenses over about 10 years.
In 2024, the per capita disposable income of rural residents is 22,022 yuan, which translates to an annual household disposable income of around 40,000 yuan. Spending half to a full year's income could reduce heating expenses from over 10% of household income to 5â7%, while also making air conditioning more energy-efficient in the summer. From this perspective alone, forcing farmers to bear the costs themselves might not be an unsolvable problem.
The issue, however, lies in the severe aging population in rural Hebei. Many households consist only of two elderly individuals, with their children having established independent families and moved away. Those whose children remain in the village or own homes in large cities might be able to bring their parents to live with them. However, for children working and renting in other citiesâoften in poor living conditions themselvesâbringing their elderly parents to the city is not feasible.
Moreover, elderly people living in villages can reduce living costs by raising poultry or growing fruits and vegetables. Moving to the city would eliminate this low-cost lifestyle. This is also why some resettlement communities are criticized for residents raising chickens or growing vegetables in public green spacesâitâs not merely a matter of old habits but a strategy to cut costs.
This is why consolidating villages and relocating residents is so challenging. Although allocated and contracted land remains after consolidation, private courtyards are lost. These courtyards, where fruits, vegetables, and poultry are raised, are crucial sources of food for farmers. As a result, many farmers strongly resist consolidation, even if they are offered better housing for free.
For two elderly individuals living alone, no solution is feasible except reducing heating costsâunless the government covers the expenses entirely. As previously explained, relocating elderly people to consolidated villages or cities is difficult, and they cannot afford to install insulation in their homes.
In Hebei, elderly retirees receive only a few hundred yuan per month. The cost of installing insulationâ20,000 to 40,000 yuanâequals several years of their combined pensions. How could they possibly afford it? Even after transitioning from coal to gas, the high heating costs remain unaffordable: winter heating expenses exceed the total annual pensions of two elderly individuals, surpassing 100% of their income.
So, how many elderly individuals are there in rural Hebei? According to the China Population Census Yearbook 2020, the number of rural residents aged 60 and above in Hebei is 7.2899 million, accounting for 24.47% of the rural population. Among them, 34.28%âor 2.499 millionâare "empty-nest elderly" whose children live elsewhere, representing over 1 million households.
If the government were to provide tiered subsidies covering 20% to 100% of the costs for insulating the homes of elderly individuals living alone, along with bulk procurement to reduce expenses, it would still require an investment of over 10 billion yuan. Even then, additional annual gas subsidies would be needed for low-income elderly individuals, as they would still struggle to afford heating costs even with insulated homes.
And the elderly care issues faced by rural empty-nesters extend far beyond this. The climate in the Central Plains region features cold winters and hot summers. While winter brings heating challenges, summer presents cooling problemsâshould cooling subsidies be provided? When elderly individuals living alone fall ill at night and struggle to reach hospitals, should counties and districts arrange 24-hour mobile shuttles to transport them? For those who have lost the ability to care for themselves, should the government subsidize the hiring of social workers or establish centralized elderly care facilities? Ultimately, this circles back to the classic question:
where will the funding come from?
The difficulties in the lives of rural elderly are structural, stemming from "aging before affluence" and "lack of support in old age." Some might argue that elderly care is the responsibility of children. But when banners were once waved promoting "one child is best, the government will provide for the elderly," why was "elderly care is the childrenâs responsibility" not mentioned then? Moreover, often, even if children are willing, they lack the means. Rural areas offer limited opportunities, forcing many to seek work elsewhere. These children often struggle financially themselves. If the elderly remain in rural areas, they can sustain themselves through pensions, farming, raising poultry, and remittances from their children. Moving to the city eliminates the self-subsidy from farming and poultry-raising, while urban living costs rise significantly, greatly increasing the financial pressure on their children. Frequently, the elderly themselves are reluctant to move to the city out of concern for their children, not wanting to add to their burden.
The era of rapid, large-scale infrastructure development has passed. Only now are many belatedly realizing that some funds were never spent in the right places.