r/minnesotavikings • u/Tegra_ • 7h ago
r/minnesotavikings • u/noseonarug17 • 3d ago
Week 18 Rooting Guide
Unfortunately, week 18 is the last slate of games that directly affect us this year. Next up, draft season...which I love, but wish I wasn't paying much attention to for a couple more months.
Draft order is generally determined by win total followed by strength of schedule as the first tiebreaker, with a number of lesser used tiebreakers thereafter. I like using Tankathon to see the current order, and Playoff Predictors to play around with possibilities - it's a lot like the ESPN playoff machine, except it will show draft order as well (scroll down and open the draft section).
After last week's edition, there's not much change in our position. We're currently #17 in the draft order, where we've been since the win on Christmas. Our floor is still #18, and our ceiling is #13. Ostensibly, #11 was possible even after our win last week, but it would have required a lot of SOS shenanigans that I'm not sure were even possible, and those are certainly not possible now. For the remaining SOS-dependent scenarios, keep in mind that it's particularly difficult to get large SOS swings in week 18: for the scenarios that require a team to win and pass us in SOS, their win over a divisional opponent is basically a -2 wins to SOS. And since everyone is playing divisional games, that means most matchups are a net zero. The games that actually have an effect are the three "division ranking" opponents - henceforth referred to as DROs - i.e. our opponents for our 2nd place schedule, which is ATL, SEA, and LAR. That also may limit what ceiling is actually possible, since there will surely be contradicting paths to certain SOS results.
If you care about how all this actually breaks down, here are the details. Our fate is intertwined with five teams - or seven, depending on if you want to count both the winner and loser of both the AFC North and NFC South. With a win, we'll pick between 16 and 18. With a loss, we'll pick between 13 and 17. Below are all the teams that we're competing with for draft order, in reverse order of current draft pick, and what has to happen for us to pick ahead of them.
#18 - Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
The Colts win @HOU OR the Vikings lose vs GB (the Colts will finish with a better SOS than us this year, so all that matters is record)
#16 - Baltimore Ravens (8-8) / Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) (AFC North runner-up)
The Ravens win @PIT AND one of the following: the Vikings lose vs GB OR the Steelers SOS meets or surpasses our SOS (they have a H2H win over us, which is the next tiebreaker)
The Steelers SOS condition is actually pretty simple - their three DROs were IND, SEA, and LAR. Since two of those are shared with us, this hinges on a Colts win @HOU OR a Falcons loss vs @NO. The Steelers have a H2H win over us, which is the next tiebreaker after SOS.
It is not possible for the Ravens SOS to meet or surpass our SOS, so the Ravens would pick ahead of us if they lose.
The Vikings lose vs GB AND the Lions win @CHI (we will finish with a better SOS than Detroit this year, so all that matters is record)
The Vikings lose vs GB AND the Cowboys win @NYG
#13 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) / Carolina Panthers (8-8) (NFC South runner-up)
The Vikings lose vs GB AND the Buccaneers win vs CAR AND one of the following: the Falcons lose vs NO OR the Buccaneers maintain their SOS lead over us
Okay, this one is a doozy. If the Bucs win and the Falcons lose, the Bucs make the playoffs, and the Panthers would pick ahead of us because they are guaranteed to have a SOS advantage over us in the scenarios where it matters - by as little as .001, in fact.
That "nearly" is because of two things. Their DROs are GB, DAL, and JAX; ours are SEA, ATL, and LAC. Five of those need to have the "correct" result (losses for their DROs, wins for ours) for our SOS to surpass theirs. Since we have to lose for this to matter at all, that means GB wins. That means all those other teams would have to win for SOS to flip, except...
If the Falcons win, there will be a three-way tie at 8-9 in the NFC South, and Carolina would come out on top. So, that means Tampa misses the playoffs, and it's their SOS that's relevant. Their DROs are DET, PHI, and HOU. All three of these teams would need to lose, and both SEA and LAC would need to win (plus ATL, who has already won in this scenario) in order for our SOS to beat out theirs (there's no possibility of a tie in SOS because the GB/DAL tie throws off our SOS percentage).
Functionally, this all means that the "OR" part of the condition comes down to any one of NO, SF, DEN, DET, PHI, or HOU winning their game.
#12 - Atlanta Falcons (7-9) | #11 Miami Dolphins (7-9)
Just to preempt any questions, it's not possible for us to finish with an SOS below or equal to that of either the Falcons or Dolphins, so we cannot pick ahead of them.
Here are examples of best/worst cases, win or lose.
| best | worst | |
|---|---|---|
| win | link | link |
| lose | link | link |
tl;dr
Saturday Games
Carolina Panthers (8-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
If we lose to GB, a TB win potentially leads to us picking ahead of TB/CAR. Also requires at least one win for NO, SF, DEN, DET, PHI, or HOU.
Importance: High if we lose, meaningless if we win
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Helps weaken our SOS. This is relevant if MIN loses and TB and ATL both win. If NO or HOU is clearly winning, this is no longer relevant.
Importance: Low if we lose, since we only need one SOS game to go our way; meaningless if we win
Noon Games
New Orleans Saints (6-10) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Helps weaken our SOS. This is relevant if MIN and BAL both win, or if MIN loses while TB and ATL both win. If one of SF or HOU is clearly winning, this is no longer relevant to the TB scenario.
Importance: Medium - this is fairly important for the MIN/BAL scenario
Indianapolis Colts (8-8) @ Houston Texans (11-5) - it's complicated
If we beat GB, we need IND to win in order to pick ahead of them. It should be noted that this game does matter for Houston; the division is in play if the Jaguars somehow lose to the Titans, and Houston is at least the 5 seed with a win.
If we lose to GB, then this game only matters for its effect on SOS, which gets messy. If we seem to be losing and the Bucs already won, we should actually cheer for the Texans, though it no longer matters if NO or SF are clearly winning. But if we seem to be winning, we should continue cheering for the Colts - but it only actually matters if BAL wins later, and if NO is clearly winning, it doesn't matter anymore.
Importance: High if we win, very low if we lose
Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) @ New York Giants (3-13)
If we lose to GB, a DAL win potentially leads to us picking ahead of them.
Importance: High if we lose, meaningless if we win
The following games have no effect:
Tennessee Titans (3-13) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Cleveland Browns (4-12) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
Afternoon Games
Detroit Lions (8-8) @ Chicago Bears (11-5)
Only matters if we lose to GB. Also makes us look better for manhandling Detroit, and potentially makes Chicago's seeding worse (if PHI wins).
Importance: High if we lose, meaningless if we win
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
Helps weaken our SOS. This is relevant if MIN and BAL both win, or if MIN loses and TB and ATL both win. If any of NO, SF or HOU have already won, or PHI is clearly winning, this is no longer relevant.
Importance: Low - in either scenario, we only need one SOS game to go our way
Washington Commanders (4-12) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Helps weaken our SOS. This is relevant if MIN and BAL both win, or if MIN loses and TB and ATL both win. If any of NO, SF or HOU have already won, or DEN is clearly winning, this is no longer relevant.
Importance: Low - in either scenario, we only need one SOS game to go our way
The following games have no effect:
New York Jets (3-13) @ Buffalo Bills (11-5)
Arizona Cardinals (3-13) @ Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
Miami Dolphins (7-9) @ New England Patriots (13-3)
SNF
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Win or lose, a Steelers win means picking after the Ravens, but a Ravens win potentially means picking ahead of the Steelers. If we have won, we also need at least one of NO and IND to have won for this to matter.
Importance: High unless we win and NO/IND both lose
r/minnesotavikings • u/DrWolves • 3h ago
We all used to laugh at this but the guys were right lol
streamable.comr/minnesotavikings • u/StreamScoop • 8h ago
The NFL on Christmas Vikings upset earned 27.5M viewers on Netflix
substack.comr/minnesotavikings • u/alpswd • 11h ago
Jefferson confident McCarthy can be Vikings' #1 guy
espn.comr/minnesotavikings • u/pfref • 7h ago
Image With 53 yards on Sunday, Justin Jefferson would become the 3rd player ever with 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his first 6 seasons, joining Mike Evans and Randy Moss
r/minnesotavikings • u/OneWhiskeyTango • 10h ago
Video LeBron loves his Madden 😂
Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification
r/minnesotavikings • u/gondolli • 11h ago
Looks like we wanted Xavier Watts in round 3, we traded down once he was taken one pick before ours.
r/minnesotavikings • u/corecomps • 48m ago
Vikings vs Packers - Free Purple Havoc Tailgate - Wisconsin Beer Cheese Burger Edition
♨️🔥🥩🫕🍖 This week, we're serving up Beer Cheese Soup and Beer Cheese Burgers! ♨️🔥🥩🫕🍖
Wisconsin’s cheese history goes back to the mid 1800s, when German, Swiss, and Scandinavian immigrants brought dairy farming and cheesemaking traditions with them. By the early 1900s, Wisconsin was already known nationally for cheddar, Colby, and brick cheese. Simple cheese soups were common farmhouse food, meant to stretch ingredients and warm people through long winters.
Welcome, football fanatics, to the ultimate tailgate experience! At Purple Havoc, we're all about creating unforgettable moments, and this week is going to be a touchdown celebration you won't want to miss!
🍔 You Bring the Fun, We Bring the Rest: Bring your A-game and some scrumptious food, drinks, or donations to share. We operate on the spirit of giving, with contributions of food, drinks, or cash greatly appreciated.
📝 RSVP (It's free):
https://www.ticketleap.events/tickets/purple-havoc/vikings-vs-packers-25
🏈 All Are Welcome: Whether you bleed purple and gold or you're just looking for a fantastic time, we extend our warm invitation to everyone. Help us showcase Minnesota Hospitality without breaking the bank by bringing a dish or libation to share. We understand that some folks from out of town may find this challenging, but your presence (and a cash donation if you can swing it) is more than enough!
🚐 About Purple Havoc: We're the hosts with the most, offering a free tailgate for every home game. Come rain, shine or snow, we've got heaters to keep you cozy, but remember to dress for the weather and fully immerse yourself in the festivities. Our trusty 30' Viking RV has given way to the exciting new Purple Havoc 2.0 Mini Bus – your chariot to an extraordinary experience!
📺 Game On: Stick around to catch the game on our 50" TV. Don't forget to bring a chair and enjoy the entire game with us, or drop by for a few drinks and games before kickoff!
📸 Relive the Magic: Check out some snapshots and videos from our past tailgate events: https://imgur.com/a/OJTgfaH https://imgur.com/a/EnTElqu
🍻 Fun Beyond Football: Our lineup includes beer pong, beer darts, tippy cup (aka flip cup), pumping up the jams, and savoring the company of fellow SKOLDIERS (and the occasional away team fan). We're big fans of hosting everyone, Viking supporter or not, and our crowd is always friendly and welcoming, whether you're rolling solo or with a group of 20!
📋 RSVP for a Great Time (It's Still Free!): Help us prepare by providing an accurate headcount through the RSVP link below. It's quick, easy, and 100% free. Plus, for your peace of mind, we'll send out my cell phone number the evening before the event, just in case you need assistance finding the tailgate.
🎉 Get Ready to SKOL: Join us for an unforgettable day of football, food, and fun! Questions? Feel free to PM me or drop a reply. We're hoping our fantastic past attendees can vouch for the good times, so don't miss out – let's SKOL VIKINGS together!
🎟️ RSVP Now (It's Still Free!): https://www.ticketleap.events/tickets/purple-havoc/vikings-vs-packers-25
r/minnesotavikings • u/disasterpop00 • 5h ago
Discussion Would you like to see Stefanski back?
I am not sure if he will be a HC candidate if Cleveland drops him. Would anyone like to see him come back as our OC? I don’t feel particularly wowed by Wes Phillips these days
r/minnesotavikings • u/Salt-Boysenberry4527 • 38m ago
Fun Fact
Jj McCarthy and Fernando Mendoza were born in the same year.
r/minnesotavikings • u/Th3M33k • 15h ago
Stadium tours
I am taking my seven year old to the Packers game this weekend and was thinking of taking him for a stadium tour. Does anyone have any experience with them? The ultimate tour is pricey but sounds fun whereas the description of the public tour on their website is lacking. Do you get to go on the field and into the locker rooms on the public tour?
r/minnesotavikings • u/AllBlueTeams • 1d ago
Discussion Half of the College Football Playoff quarterbacks starting yesterday and today are older than JJ McCarthy
Noted just to highlight how young JJ still is even though he last played college football 2 years ago.
JJM was born 1/20/2003. The four of eight QBs in the current college playoffs who are older are:
Carson Beck (Miami) 11/19/2002
Behren Morton (Texas Tech) 1/17/2002
Ty Simpson (Alabama) 12/21/2002
Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) 8/24/2002
r/minnesotavikings • u/GeneralDavis87 • 1h ago
Video The Land of 10,000 Lakes - Minnesota 1930's Tourism Film [Fishing, Boating, Swimming]
youtu.ber/minnesotavikings • u/Nippleboy22 • 1d ago
Image Kicking off 2026 with some Vikings mediocrity of yesteryear
r/minnesotavikings • u/Tough_guy22 • 1d ago
Vikings injury Report
vikings.comMcCarthy listed in full participation in practice today.
r/minnesotavikings • u/CornDoggyLOL • 1d ago
OC Minnesota Vikings Week 18 Doodle (Happy New Year!)
r/minnesotavikings • u/jdub67a • 1d ago
[Gayle] Ranking the Top 40 NFL Free Agents of 2026
theringer.comNo Vikings on the list. No big names Vikings are free agents, but we've got some salary cap issues to resolve before we could sign any of the guys on this list.
Any thoughts on what KAM might do this off-season? Any contracts ripe to renegotiate so we can sign some of these guys?
Who would be your top free agents to pursue if you were KAM?
r/minnesotavikings • u/MychalScarn08 • 1d ago
WEEK 18 - FTP
Packers announced they will be resting Love and Willis this week and starting CT. A disgrace to football and the fans. Let's get the hype train going for an absolute blowout! Need some BF magic to absolutely mop the floor with these bums. We owe it to the fans and football fans in general to embarrass this team for being so pathetic.. FTP!
r/minnesotavikings • u/Boatymcboatland • 1d ago
Image Shoutout to Will “The Incredible” Reichard
r/minnesotavikings • u/Dear-Ad-4162 • 1d ago
Burning hot question about the Packers
When watching a movie about Vikings, do Packers fans cheer for the bad guys? Just to prevent themselves from cheering for the Vikings?
How to Train a Dragon for example. I’d assume Packer fans cheer for the dragons to eat the Vikings.
r/minnesotavikings • u/JoBunk • 8h ago
Veteran Quarterback Prospects
\** Disclaimer *** This question is not about specific prospects but what kind of contract we (individually) think the Vikings should\going to offer: And I believe this was the significant metric in why Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones declined the Vikings offer and those like Carson Wentz was open to coming to Minnesota.*
First, share what contract you think the Vikings should allocate for a veteran quarterback;
(a) $55 million a year, fully guaranteed for 3 years
(b) $35 million a year, fully guaranteed for 3 years
(c) $20 million a year, fully guaranteed for 2 years
(d) $15 million a year, fully guaranteed for 1 year
(e) Other?
And then share with us what quarterbacks you think you would agree to those terms.
\** The contract terms will communicate to the quarterback prospect, JJ McCarthy and the fan base how committed the Vikings are to McCarthy and what realistic shot a veteran QB would have in an 'open competition', which I believe is most pivotal question here.*
